Everyone can feel the stagnation and decline around us in the US. Many think that America is bound for Brazilification but the decline would be like Western Rome where the elites were okay with barbarian invaders replacing the natives as long as they kept their estates. Brazilification is still possible, but there might be a wrinkle to our decline. America may socially or culturally be as degenerate as Weimar or economically as corrupted as ancien regime France, but it structurally looks more like the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
American break up seems more appealing as we move along. Recent polls have shown oddly high percentages of Americans supporting secession. What if the US is not destined for a collapse but is destined for a break up? How hard the current elite hold on without change may apply pressure creating a greater fragmentation. A historical example that the US might be treading along towards is the dismantling of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire (AHE) was one of the sick old men of Europe that faced a few political crises in its last century of existence that threatened the very structure of its being. The great statesman Metternich was constantly pressing for peace, using diplomacy and citing treaties to prevent a repeat of “the Revolution” and to prevent war since the AHE’s finances were always in terrible shape. Metternich’s internal system of political censorship, letter reading and espionage was enacted by the man himself but used even more effectively by his successor.
After Metternich, there was an internal political compromise, but in reality, the empire was a trade union with little holding the whole thing together. This was revealed fraudulent when external crises were forced on the AHE; Great War losses as well as disloyal troops, separatist movements actively rebelling, massive inflation and the crumbling or discrediting of the military that was running the show in the final years.
The parliamentary system had broken down as far back as 1897. April of 1897 saw Prime Minister Badeni attempt language concessions to different groups, but this enraged Germans especially the German bureaucrats who had swelled the Empire’s administrative ranks. That same April saw the emergence of stronger Slav parties and socialist parties for the first time. Fragmentation hurt any possible improvements. It was not just political but social as what cohesive feeling did peasants in Slovenia have with the Viennese or with feudal Magyars? Every attempt at reform during the reign of Franz Joseph was sabotaged because some interest group just powerful enough would stop it (sounds familiar).
Oscar Jaszi wrote the good “The Dissolution of the Habsburg Monarchy”, and despite being overly enthusiastic about the promise of extended suffrage, he points out things that held the AHE together and things that split it apart. The army, the aristocracy, the economic situation that was slow growth with massive control by the Rothschild and other Vienna based banks due to businesses having little capital of their own to use (he actually titled that section “Capitalism and the Jewry”, no lie), and even socialism held it together. The things that tore it apart were rising nationalism, antagonism between the two heavyweight groups (Germans-Magyars), lack of a civic education system that promoted unity, and irredentism or what we would look at as secessionism or separatism. There were even Germans within Austria who wanted an Anschluss with Bismarck’s Germany! There was also corruption within the government and business interests, acting like there was a revolving door. The crisis of the Great War pushed it over the cliff, but it is not too absurd to see parallels to today’s America.
Resembles the NY Times 2010 Census Map with Race Filter On
America is an Empire with a mix of ethnicities within its borders. Some of these groups have specific language barriers, and all are atomized to their little ethnic units. These mixed ethnicities are also genetically and racially more disparate than the groups that were contained within the AHE. Democratic gatherings look like Zion in The Matrix compared to an AHE Congress. There is also a major “German-Magyar” split of sorts with the white cultural cold war. The Germans were more Viennese in culture and cosmopolitan, while the Magyars were more feudal and agricultural based. This fits our coastal and blue city elite whites vs. red flyover, flatlander whites well. How much of SWPL or modern liberal cultural ideas are NYC based? There is another group that had a meteoric rise in Vienna with overrepresentation in all points of power (except the military) similar to their current position in NYC.
We do have slower economic growth now, and some would argue none due to our bubble dependent economy. Our banks are combination investment + commercial similar to Rothschild’s Creditanstalt. Here’s partly where the dirty trick of our usurious bankster elite has turned us from a robust economy to a Wall Street dominated economy. We used to have great earnings retention and internal investment. Steady income through dividends was desired by shareholders, not sudden massive capital appreciation. The great switch in the ’80s occurred because of debt based raiding and tax policy. This not only meant we were a banker dependent economy, but any firm with low debt was suddenly a target by those who could access credit. A firm had to take on debt to keep the predators at bay. Suddenly, firms were dependent on Wall Street advice more than in 1955.
We have a managerial elite that needs massive scale and centralization so they can retain control. Centralizing finance through dependency on the FED feeds their system. Our military industrial complex needs the Empire and centralization. We also have to fight for our foreign creditors to keep the petrodollar recycling going. It is not just economic but symbolic. We have a military that prole whites rally around, but it does not quite have the gelling effect of the World War Two days. Yet, American military prowess is the one remaining feature of USG that the common man will relish and respect. Progressive tail tucking and flag waving for the Libyan incursion and worldwide droning has proven that. We also have an education and propaganda system that educates obedience to proper authority while encouraging minorities to protest and hate the very system that actually needs and protects them. It is an interesting juxtaposition. I have yet to meet a parent happy with the educational system even if they like their specific school.
The AHE kept lumbering on, propped up by Germany as their reliable ally. It took an internal problem (the Balkans) to antagonize them to create an external problem that destroyed them. They did not have a giant financial transfer welfare system to keep people happy, which is a major difference between the AHE and America. Easy money keeps disgruntled people okay with a system, whether it is welfare or easy money for middle class families to buy things to make themselves feel better than the lower classes. This is why America’s system rests on those low interest rates. Secession polls already show an oddly high percentage of Americans that support secession, and we have not made a single tough economic or financial decision yet. Latinos lead in supporting secession so shades of irredentism. Deeper dig shows 53% of Tea Partiers support secession. The younger one is, the higher the support. Similar to the AHE, our ethnic groups have enclaves. Look at the census racial dot map. Consider the economies and populations of different states (or regional clusters) in relation to other first world nations. At some point, the dollar will lose its premier reserve currency status, there will be a dollar or interest rate shock, and we will go through the transition. The AHE needed a war, discrediting of the army and ruling class, and internal friction before self determination became a goal.
Even in the end, it was an external force pushing internal AHE actors along, which American states may need. While the US has 50 functioning state governments allowing a conceptual dissolution, there wil be those with so much sunk into the current system they will fight it. OverProduction of elites will make some wish to be big fish in smaller ponds. Hungary declared independence, severing all ties to the Austrian half. Within Hungary, leaders accused one another of treason or of being a foreign agent. The Romanians in America warned that this was a ruse to trick the allies; keep in mind that Romanian warning was false but still was printed in global newspapers. Hungary declared independence while Bohemia and the Czechs voiced stronger and stronger desires for freedom, creating “historical oppression” requiring attention out of thin air. The AHE emperor proposed federalism to appease both his subjects and President Wilson. This was rejected, and the US put the heat on to free the groups, emboldening them. The New York Times even printed Secretary of State Lansing’s rejection of the emperor’s plan. The Czechs were supported but also used as cannon fodder in Russia by the allies. Support had a cost. It would be useful for US citizens who see the USG leviathan for what it is to educate fellow citizens or at least discuss Russia and China in neutral or favorable terms. China says different systems for different nations; Russia sees the US poz empire for what it is. Both will have a vested interest in harming the current hegemon.
America cannot cleanly defeat entities like Al-Qaeda, the Taliban or the Iraqi insurgents. Look at America’s racial dot map again and think of political leanings of states. When the money runs out, what party may get more of the blame for empty promises? What happens if some populations emigrate to spots safer for them? Caesarism is coming. Now start moving purple states one way. Look at metropolitan cities that dominate a state (example: Chicago holds Illinois hostage). Our transition of crises will be financial to economic to political to social to cultural and back to political. There will be hard choices. There will be blood. People will seek order and safety for kith and kin, and instinctively know that diversity + proximity = war. If the elites continue their game and draw to an inside straight with the dollar system, the Brazilification and continued decline into a socialist, Sodom + Gomorrah police state will be complete. If not and if current geopolitical opponents decide to meddle with us to create friendly rump states, do not be surprised for the end of the Austro-Hungarian Empire to have a repeat on our shores.