Elections are fake, but we can still bet on them. The political betting markets are nothing new. They have been around for several election cycles now. If one were to apply some analysis outside the mainstream, one could have cleaned up since 2016. Simply following the predictions of Audacious Epigone or Ricky Vaughn in ’16, ’18 and ’20 would have netted a gambler a good payday. The first term of President Joe Biden offers some opportunities.
One thing to keep in mind is that the best opportunities have to defy some general consensus that the normies hold. Some of the easiest money to be made on prediction markets during President Trump’s term were the bets that he would still be in office on January 1, 2018 or 2019. The Russian Collusion psyop forced a chunk of money to back his removal in those markets, making for easy pick ups. Same went for Trump’s conviction in the Senate in January ’20. It is not just about hitting longer shots like Trump winning in ’16. This doesn’t just apply to Trump. Savvy individuals could scoop up huge wins putting money on Biden to win the D nomination before the SC primary when his odds were low and markets were giving Bernie and Bloomberg high probabilities. Another quick hitter was Kamala Harris for VP as she was the establishment favorite before flaming out and was a woman (check) and minority (check).
An interesting play is on Joe Biden’s ability to finish out his term and who will be the ’24 D nominee. One can bet on Biden resigning (for simplicity, all links are to PredictIt). This seems a natural outcome for the man who falls downstairs and constantly forgets his canned lines. It might be the nice thing to do for him after legislation is passed. This does leave one open to a couple outs: first, his death and second, his use as a shield for four years for an untainted nominee in ’24. This is why the resign part is a slick kicker. A way to protect oneself with this bet is to pair it with a bet that Kamala Harris will be the ’24 nominee. This is the safer bet and still offers a good payout even now. Even if Joe is a vegetable in office for four years and hands the Oval Office to Kamala in January of ’25, you lose on Joe resigning but win on Kamala being the nominee. A far riskier bet is if Kamala will file before 2023. That is an aggressive bet to make.
Biden’s value is in absorbing the disappointment and being an elderly figure to confuse enough voters. Not all, just enough. Biden can be wheeled out, CGI-ed and juiced with vyvanse for few public appearances. The longer the charade of mask wearing and social distancing continues, the longer they can minimize his appearances. In the event policies cause any voter backlash, Biden absorbs the anger and choosing to not run in ’24 can deflect anger at the D nominee.
A couple non-Biden related bets are out there that look appealing. Right now, gambling on DeSantis looks good, and an even better long shot is Josh Hawley. One would be early on the bandwagon, but this is the invisible primary season, and DeSantis is making all of the right moves. The invisible primary is better defined as the first two years of a presidential cycle when candidates figure out what message resonates, takes the right stands, and starts staking out positions closer to the base. DeSantis hits all the right populist tones, is very quick on his feet in appearances, tussles with the media and has been the anti-lockdown figure in America. Florida still has restrictions, but looks nothing like most of America for openness. Senator Hawley has lower odds, but this is where reading up on his fundraising matters. His association with the 1/6 riot was supposed to harm him, but in fact, he has pulled in heavy money not just for himself but others allied with him. This expands his reach. He is a cheap buy at $0.04 right now. In Senate races, J.D. Vance at $0.34 is a good wager. Nextflix adaptations, book deals, fake jobs, and Thiel bucks are going to carry him a long way.
On the left side of the aisle, the NY Democrats offer an opportunity to hitch a ride with the woke wing taking out Cuomo. Letitia James is an ambitious figure, and Cuomo looks weakened right now. Per NY state polls, his support is cratering because making comments to Millennial women is far worse than killing the elderly for NY voters. Independent voters have a line in the sand and telling a 20-something she is cute and asking to kiss her is one step too far. While James is the favorite, buying at $0.38 is a pretty good deal. Remember Kamala for VP was in the high 20s when it was obvious she was going to be the pick. Keep in mind, she was a dark horse for the nomination when she was elected senator in ’16, but our crowd saw how resumes don’t matter anymore, just what grievance box you check.
These are thin markets. These are also better than the stock market. A few whiny billionaires manipulated the FED, the FTC, the SEC, stock trading apps, options brokers all over GASP taking losses on one stock trade. Have a little fun with the circus we call American politics. Make a little money off of being a skeptic of the mainstream. One does not need be early, just right.