The American regime recently leaked that they were worried about messaging about the amazing economic recovery Biden has guided. Regime media revealed this coordination and subsequently, media personalities were singing the economy’s praises. This is a hard sell because there is no real recovery.
The claims of a recession in ‘20 were true per the dictionary as America saw two quarters of contraction. First quarter saw a small decline and the second quarter witnessed the historic decline. This was unlike any other event in the course of GDP tracking. This was not a traditional inventory management recession of misaligned supply and demand. This was not a modern no more borrowers recession like ‘00 and ‘08. This was a political choice to shut the economy down. Purely political as Democrats like AOC tweeted to not open up early and give Trump any aid.
How political was this? Look no further than Disney. Florida allowed Disneyworld to reopen. California kept Disneyland shut down. Disney had data and protocols in Florida with real time statistics to push on California. Did not work. The masses must be punished and given the opportunity to jettison Trump in exchange for a return to normalcy. Our politicians suspected that they could unplug and plug the economy back in like a router. The claims of millions of jobs created in ‘21 ring hollow when everyone knows those jobs merely came back because governors allowed businesses to restart. People keep dying but in spring we could come back. Thousands still die from covid but millions try to return to normal so the real effect of covid likely would have hurt tourism and large, closed venues. Even then it would have been a choice.
The GDP growth figures we see are the snapback in ‘20 and subsequent shifts in states to come back to normal. We still have not returned to 2019 GDP, really check it. Air traffic is roughly 85% what it was in ‘19. Activity has shifted away from some sectors and other firms are filling gaps. Some businesses are gone and never coming back. The burn out is real with smaller businesses, but even employers 500-5000 employees in size are facing hard decisions.
Those firms enjoyed government help whether through paycheck protection or the great bond bailout of ‘20. That is over. The direct assistance the feds provided citizens is over. Rent assistance, student loan payment pauses, and other programs are over. What is also happening is the massive money printing of ‘20 is making its way through to the real economy with a proper 12-18 month lag. Now everyone faces higher prices, and many cannot work or saw their businesses destroyed. Not everyone can work at Amazon.
The worker shortage is a weird problem no one has an answer for. I don’t but it is multivariable. Some people must have realized they were working to pay childcare. Immigration was paused. Employers still have not raised wages enough to entice others. I was looking for a gig while employed as my employer was losing customers and was offered short severance as my firm shed head count at the same time I got a new offer. Due to non-compete clauses, I could not work for a few months. It was awesome. I spent tons of time with family. I had the best workouts. I wrote fiction which may come out next year. How many Americans realized they didn’t need their second income in their house or could get by with a little less? What’s there to buy anyway?
That is why the broad based inflation we see is killing regime messaging. Formerly, inflation was contained to assets, medical and college costs. It could be tucked away and hidden out of statistical measurements by the CPI basket of goods. Hedonic adjustments, basket of goods shuffling and the downward pressure of global wage arbitrage worked as globalization developed. That is gone. Inflation is everywhere as a flood of money chases a broken supply chain. They cannot stuff if back into the basement, and prices will rise as fewer units sold need to generate revenues to cover all that corporate debt. This is all at near zero interest rates.
There is no recovery though because to recover is to return to 2019. The regime will not allow that. The Biden team is trying to crush domestic natural resource extraction and make that big pivot to a green future. We can’t even fix a port logjam because no one wants to suspend California’s dumb regulations for an emergency. The constant messaging is to build back better, scrap the old ways and only recover in the approved manner. The Great Reset went from conspiracy theory to policy.
There will be no recovery and all the messaging for one will fall flat. People can still remember 2019. People see inflation and shrinkflation with their eyes. NFTs, sports betting and video game accessory hoarding are all a symptom of a broken economy with too much money sloshing around. America, the car nation, cannot even deliver the chariots of freedom to its citizens. This isn’t a recovery in any form. The question is if we see ‘70s stagflation, an Argentinian corralito or actual hyperinflation. There is no going back. For political gain, people you wouldn’t leave in charge of a gas station carnival thought they could flip the off switch on a $20 trillion dollar machine.