The presidential campaign season has elongated as the stakes grow. Candidates build a resume for a long march towards the Oval Office but in the last decade what used to be a twelve to fifteen month official campaign season has stretched to be twenty-four months and now possibly a continuous affair. The current focus is on the brewing DeSantis vs. Trump GOP primary battle. This humble writer will advise Governor DeSantis to not run.

It’s fairly simple. Trump has a wide swath of support from the base and looks difficult to beat due to winner take all delegate allocations. While Trump has his flaws, no one can knock him off his perch due to his unique coalition. Trump draws in the working class, which outnumbers the educated, professional GOP vote bloc. The GOP tastemakers still fail to see that this is the base now and the +$100,000 earners of the ‘90s (many small business owners) that voted GOP are gone and replaced by a class of liberally indoctrinated educated voters and left leaning professional managerial class.

This unique Trump appeal matters more than DeSantis boosters want to admit. How does DeSantis retain the Trump margins in rural WI, PA, MI of 2016? Where exactly does he stand on the three pillars of on-shoring business, restricting immigration and not starting needless wars that captured those voters? The 2016 Trump map is the battle-space, and Arizona and Georgia must be re-taken on top of flipping one of those Big 10 states (both tasks are tougher now due to ballot harvesting). DeSantis cannot make up for rural erosion up north with a comeback in the suburbs due to numbers, as even in George Bush’s high tide ‘04 campaign he still fell short 10,000 votes in Wisconsin and +100,000 votes short in Michigan. One quickly envisions a DeSantis Electoral map resembling Romney’s with Ohio and Florida added. Good, but not good enough. There is no path to 270 without securing a Midwest blue wall state.

The other danger to DeSantis is engaging in a messy primary fight with a sharp tongued opponent who will draw blood. Gov. DeSantis will have a bloody shirt whether he wins or loses the primary, which would hurt him for ‘28. The ‘28 presidential election, while demographics favor Democrats as time moves on, will be an open primary, and Gov. DeSantis will no longer be a governor, free to campaign all he wants on listening tours and events. The ‘28 cycle is DeSantis’ cycle for the taking. As he accumulates more resume accomplishments, he can also build a roadmap for other red state governors to copy. He is a good governor, and as federal overreach and tyranny grow, we need more governors like DeSantis. The federal power continues to centralize just as its incompetence grows. Building up regional state power matters; more than a sacrificial presidential run.

A final danger is the risk of a spurned third party run by Trump in states that do not have sore loser laws. Trump can fund one. Would he spend his own money on it? That is the sticking point. It is a different media environment both legacy and social. They can shut Trump out, but even 5% can swing a dozen states.

What neither side of this primary fight will admit is the Democrats’ ballot harvesting program make a ‘24 victory look near impossible. Who is implementing such a program on the right? This should have been started up after the ‘18 midterms dry-run of the Democrats’ program. Four years of nothing. Without such a program, the vote harvesting scam will continue.

One right wing dream scenario is Trump wins ‘24 and DeSantis wins ‘28, giving the right a dozen years to slow down immigration (or shut it off) and attack the federal bureaucracy (Schedule F measures and Church Committee 2.0). Will that save America? Unlikely, as the more layers of massive reform needed resembles the coup complete problem and we have not discussed woke cultural dominance or demographic change.

Another, darker dream scenario is DeSantis does run now and overcomes Trump quickly due to a favorable early primary schedule and a bandwagon effect. Trump does not run third party, and the GOP hacks and influencers get giddy. Then, shock of all shocks, DeSantis is called a Nazi, a fascist, evil, DeathSantis, etc. for months. He loses in a spectacular, rigged outcome. Finally, the gentle souls of the taste-making right will understand it does not matter, no one is good enough, the Oval Office is closed for their entry and alternatives must be entertained as the empire spins out.

All should note that Biden himself has claimed there are ways to prevent Trump from running. If the Nordstream 2 pipeline is an indication, expect DOJ tomfoolery. Gov. DeSantis would be wise to stay out of the fray. There is no need to rush an announcement when you are the big dog after the Golden Don. Who knows? There may be a moment Trump is indicted, in a dark spot and he anoints his successor to finish the MAGA job he began. If that does not happen, keep your shirt clean Gov. DeSantis, and get ready for Newsom in ‘28. Do it on your terms, not to fulfill the wishes of snakes whispering in your ear.