Palestinians kicked off a new conflict as tension continues to rise around the periphery of the American empire. Israel will respond. The initial raid was too destructive not to respond in a firm manner. Set aside rhetoric from grandstanding American political figures, this is a brazen attack that not only was effective but punctures the image of Israeli security state invincibility and omnipotence. The question remains: does this escalate and by how much? The answer depends on Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is a Shia Lebanese political-military organization with an origin story of terrorism and assassinations that all started with two Lebanese Shias getting guns and some cash from an Iranian in a motel. That is not an exaggeration. Books on Hezbollah are limited due to the secretive nature of the organization’s internal structure despite having an open external face that provides social services and political candidates/activism. The number two man in Hezbollah wrote “Hizbullah: The Story From Within” yet Amazon discontinued carrying it. They are an insurgent cell structure organization that engaged in brutal guerrilla warfare and terrorism through the Lebanese Civil War (1983 US embassy bombing) that pivoted to political involvement in Lebanon’s fractured politics.

They have grown in power even if isolated at times. They made an odd alliance cobbling together Muslim and Christian parties to be party of ruling coalitions. Through it all, they have also built an effective fighting force. The War Nerd drools over any Third World militia, but his praise of Hezbollah’s effectiveness is not erroneous. Their primary pitch to Shia Lebanese is “no one will protect you but us”. Due to corruption of older Shia political parties and Hezbollah’s efforts socially for the rural Shia, this worked. They also back it up with fighting and winning.

Hezbollah spent a decade in Syria, bailing out Assad’s initial forces continuously. They also fought Israel in 2006 and bloodied their nose enough for Israel to withdraw. This did not come without consequences. They suffered losses, but also gained immense knowledge and experience in modern warfare tactics, especially urban fighting. Hezbollah is such a concern that speculation is America keeps 200 troops at the Al-Tanf camp in Syria (ever wonder why are we still there?) just to prevent a Shia corridor from Iran to Lebanon for supplies and weapons transfer.

Proxies engage in narrative construction. America and Israel do. Hezbollah and Iran do as well. Besides the Hezbollah origin tale, there is the long tradition of the Shia faith. This is not just the Shia sect but that when the Safavids did intense work to make Islam somewhat unique for Persia, they imported Lebanese Shia scholars to educate the Persian bureaucracy and everyday citizens. The exchange of clerics, theology and charity has been fluid and continuous between the two communities ever since. One of the few, if only, figures in late ‘70s Iran who was considered august and strong enough to head Khomeini at the pass was Musa al-Sadr who was doing social and political work in Lebanon. He went missing before the critical moment in Iran and has never been found. He founded Amal for the impoverished Shia of Lebanon, but alas Amal was too soft for the types who founded Hezbollah.

Hezbollah could start trouble for Israel on its northern border if it chooses to do so. What does it gain? Well, what freedom of choice does it have if Iran tells Hezbollah to start trouble? This is the downside to being a proxy force, even if you become the most experienced proxy force in the region. Hezbollah could just make a show of possible action and keep IDF combat personnel stationed in the north to weaken what can be thrown into Gaza. This would be a smart play, but that bluff can only last so long before Israel realizes it has nothing to worry about up north.

No one knows what will happen with so many proxy forces at play across the mosaic that is the Middle East, and that’s what makes things so much more dangerous. America sends a carrier to the eastern Mediterranean. It’s not about Hamas. It’s to scare off Hezbollah. We just can sit, watch and hope nothing escalates. We wouldn’t want to see if the Samson Option is a myth or real.